High points for economic data scheduled for October 14 week

The October 14 week begins with a federal holiday on Monday with the observance of Indigenous Peoples’/Columbus Day. However, this day is far from universally observed in the US. Bond markets will be closed, but the stock market will be open. Government offices will be closed, but most businesses will have their usual hours. Many retailers will use the three-day weekend to kick off their holiday shopping period, although many stores have had Thanksgiving and Christmas merchandise on prominent display already alongside the Halloween items. The economic data calendar is unaffected by the holiday.

The big report in the week is the September data on retail and food services sales at 8:30 ET on Thursday. There’s room for a few surprises in the numbers, but a lot could depend on how much of the underlying information came in from storm-affected areas in the days before and after Hurricane Helene made landfall on September 26. It is late enough in the month that effects may have to wait for the revisions when the October report is issued on Friday, November 15.

At the moment, rising motor vehicle sales and falling gasoline prices are two factors that are moving in opposite directions. There is likely to be an increase in the dollar value of motor vehicle sales both on units sold and prices paid. Gasoline prices fell fairly steadily over the course of September which in turn could reduce the dollar value of sales even if the volume of sales increased. Elsewhere, storm preparations could mean a boost for sales of building materials, nonperishable food and bottled water, and emergency supplies like ice, batteries, and generators. Demand could have been higher both before and after the storm hit.

Also on Thursday is the October housing market index from the NAHB at 10:00 ET. Homebuilders’ confidence started to recover in September with steep declines in mortgage rates. At the start of September the weekly Freddie Mac rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.35 percent and fell to 6.08 percent by late in the month. However, some of that was due to a reaction to the FOMC cutting the fed funds target rate range by an aggressive 50 basis points on September 18. Markets are now less giddy about future rate cuts since the release of the solid September employment report on October 4. The October NAHB report could reflect homebuilders’ renewed caution about the outlook for much of the new home construction market. However, it may also capture some expectation of a need for replacing destroyed housing stock after the hurricanes.