The traditional winter holiday shopping season is 2024 is a short 27 days compared to the average of 30 days between Thanksgiving and Christmas.
Of course, the traditional winter holiday shopping season isn’t what it used to be. Stores have had Christmas décor on display since July alongside end-of-summer sales and Halloween merchandise. Many retailers and warehouse stores will begin promoting gift buying for the holidays in earnest with the weekend of Columbus Day/Indigenous Peoples Day (October 14) with another big push to capture early bird shoppers around Veterans Day (November 11).
Nonetheless, a lot of shopping will occur in the Thanksgiving-New Years Day period. Consumers who are worried about inventories for planned purchases will be weighing the benefits of buying sooner versus the prospect of heavier discounting starting on Black Friday.
The Black Friday crush in stores on Friday, November 29 may be less than in prior years. Especially for larger-ticket items like electronics, some shoppers are going to go online for the convenience of comparison shopping and delivery. The now entrenched Cyber Monday sales could be pitched to capture even more of the share of online shoppers. The fourth quarter has typically seen an escalation in the share of total retail sales as consumers are ever more likely to opt for the ease and time-saving of shopping at home or from the office. The Challenger data on hiring intentions for the transportation sector in September 2024 certainly suggests that delivery companies are gearing up for a busy holiday period.
In December, retail gains will be for gift shopping, but also may see more of a boost in things like restaurant meals and entertainment venues, or for travel. And much of this could be concentrated towards the end of the month. In 2024, the observance of Hanukkah begins in the same week as Christmas and the start of Kwanzaa. With Christmas falling on a Wednesday, those who have vacation time are likely to take it on Monday and Tuesday, or Thursday and Friday, or both. The time off will be used to shop and socialize. Consumers will use the days before to prepare for the holiday, and/or the days after to perhaps browse post-holiday clearance and get ready for the New Year observance.
Whether consumers are in the mood to shop and spend in 2024 is more in question. To some extent it may depend on the results of the presidential election which is a source of uncertainty and anxiety for many. Having the election out of the way will give consumers at least some answers as to the economic outlook and determine household financial decisions.
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