With the next round of inflation reports on the near horizon, markets should be prepared for a disappointment that, following April’s employment report, may well erase the uptick in rate-cut expectations.The bottom line is that [...]
Recent comments from a number of MPC members have hinted that a cut in Bank Rate might not be too far away and possibly rather sooner than financial markets currently expect. However, apart from the [...]
The May 6 week presents a remarkably empty calendar for US economic data. This will leave plenty of time to speculate about the direction of Fed monetary policy after the downside surprise in the change [...]
At minus 7, the Relative Performance Index (RPI) extended an improving trend and is now signaling that global economic data on net are nearly meeting economic forecasts. At minus 2, the index less prices (RPI-P) [...]
The two high points of the April 29 week are the FOMC meeting on Tuesday-Wednesday and the April employment report at 8:30 ET on Friday. For the former, no change in the fed funds target [...]
At minus 14 and minus 9, both the Relative Performance Index and the index less prices (RPI-P) extended the prior week’s pattern of global underperformance, too limited, however, to sway expectations for monetary policy.In the [...]
While expectations are universal that the FOMC will remain on hold with interest rates at the April 30-May 1 meeting, there is a good possibility that it will elect to make an announcement about a [...]
Federal Reserve policymakers will not be commenting on monetary policy this week since it falls within the communications blackout period that surrounds the April 30-May 1 FOMC meeting. Expectations for the meeting are consistent with [...]
Having consistently surprised on the upside over the last four weeks or so, global economic activity was weaker than forecast last week. That said, at minus 11 and minus 5 respectively, both the Relative Performance [...]
The last economic data report that has the potential to change the tone of the upcoming FOMC meeting on April 30-May 1 is retail and food services sales at 8:30 ET on Monday. Sales were [...]
