A look at the 2024 FOMC lineup
The lineup of the 2023 FOMC voters will be in place until the FOMC meeting on January 30-31, 2024.In 2023, the rotation of district bank presidents voting at FOMC meetings consists New York’s John Williams [...]
November 2023
GDP Nowcasts align for moderate growth in the fourth quarter
The available data for forecasting GDP growth in the fourth quarter 2023 are still scanty and the outlook could change as more numbers become available. However, the three Fed district bank GDP Nowcasts are surprisingly [...]
High points for economic data scheduled for November 27 week
Two questions will dominate in the November 27 week. First, how is the 2023 winter holiday shopping season shaping up? Second, will the FOMC raise rates again at the December 12-13 meeting. This week there [...]
Global activity still lagging, RPI at minus 17
Global economic activity continues to struggle to keep up with market expectations. At minus 17, the RPI shows forecasters on average not too wide of the mark but underperformance can only bolster the chances of [...]
Fed working on financial stability via bank term funding program
There’s been an uptick in talk about financial stability from Fed officials in the last few months. This is unsurprising given the concerns about how financial institutions are managing their interest rate risk after the [...]
High points for US economic data scheduled for November 20 week
The November 20 week is effectively a three-day work week with the Federal holiday on Thursday for Thanksgiving and many workers taking leave on Friday to have a four-day weekend afterward. Black Friday is the [...]
Global economies underperforming; relative performance index at -14
Global economic activity continued to fall slightly short of market expectations last week. At minus 14, the Relative Performance Index shows forecasters still a little too optimistic about current conditions and, with recent inflation indicators [...]
PPI annual quality adjustment to US car and light truck prices
Each year in November in conjunction with the release of the October producer price index, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases a report on the dollar value of quality changes for motor vehicle models in [...]
Extra day or two for US holiday shopping
Will consumers spend a little more this winter holiday season with an extra day to shop? In 2023, there are 32 days between Thanksgiving and Christmas, up from 31 days in 2022 and 2 days [...]
High points for economic data scheduled for November 13 week
The economic data release schedule is crowded in the November 13 week. There are three reports that should stand out, or would if not for a looming government shutdown on November 17.First is October’s CPI [...]