QT progress since June 2022
How much progress has been made in quantitative tightening since the Fed started, in June last year, to reduce its reserve holdings of US treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities?It was on May 4, 2022 that [...]
July 2023
Summer tax holidays could help Q3 spending
Although retail sales data for the second quarter 2023 are not yet complete, so far it looks like it could be solid enough to keep GDP from being negative when the advance estimate is released [...]
June 2023
High points for economic data scheduled for July 3 week
The July 3 week is shortened by what is effectively a holiday on Monday and the Independence Day observance on Tuesday. US stock and bond markets are open on Monday, but will both close early. [...]
High points for economic data scheduled for June 26 week
The June 26 week closes out the second quarter 2023 with little economic data likely to cause any surprise in the days leading up to what will be for many the long Independence Day weekend [...]
FOMC calendar for 2024 includes an adjustment for election day
On Friday, June 23, the Federal Reserve released the tentative meeting calendar for 2024. There were no changes to the 2023 meeting calendar. The only item of note is that the November 6-7, 2024 meeting [...]
June SNB MPA preview: Still not restrictive enough
Having previously delivered a 50 basis point hike at the March Monetary Policy Assessment (MPA), the SNB is widely expected to raise its policy rate again on Thursday. The last change lifted the benchmark rate [...]
Powell’s monetary policy outlook reflects a Fed with few options
On Friday, June 16 the Fed released the semiannual monetary policy report to Congress. The report is inclusive of data available through 16:00 ET on June 14. As such it doesn’t include the May data [...]
June BoE MPC Preview: Persistent inflation is proving to be just that
Stubbornly high inflation and accelerating wage growth would seem to leave the BoE with little choice but to hike Bank Rate for what would be a thirteenth consecutive meeting on Thursday. The market consensus is [...]
High points for economic data scheduled for June 19 week
Note that week starts with a federal holiday on Monday, although Juneteenth will not be universally observed. Some employers will give the holiday in the July 3 week to make a four-day weekend of July [...]
June ECB meeting preview: Recession raises risks of monetary overkill
Almost without exception, official comments since the May policy meeting have indicated that Governing Council (GC) members think key interest rates need to be higher if inflation is to be brought back under control. This [...]