Global data slightly under forecasts as US sinks
Econoday’s Relative Performance Index for the global economy moved a bit lower, ending the week at minus 7 and at minus 10 less inflation (RPI-P). The US, at minus 26 for the RPI and minus [...]
May 2024
High points for US economic data scheduled for May 13 week
In the wake of the softer-than-expected payroll gains for April in the monthly employment report, the inflation data for April in the May 13 week become the next signpost for the outlook for Fed monetary [...]
Global data hitting forecasts; Europe leads, North America lags
Global economic data continue to come in very near expectations, at minus 3 for the Relative Performance Index and at plus 3 less prices (RPI-P). Though the outlook for monetary policy varies by region, on [...]
Revival in goods price inflation will make disinflation progress harder
With the next round of inflation reports on the near horizon, markets should be prepared for a disappointment that, following April’s employment report, may well erase the uptick in rate-cut expectations.The bottom line is that [...]
May BoE MPC Preview: Some dovish talk but still no cut this month
Recent comments from a number of MPC members have hinted that a cut in Bank Rate might not be too far away and possibly rather sooner than financial markets currently expect. However, apart from the [...]
High points for US economic data scheduled for May 6 week
The May 6 week presents a remarkably empty calendar for US economic data. This will leave plenty of time to speculate about the direction of Fed monetary policy after the downside surprise in the change [...]
Global data extend improvement, roughly meeting expectations
At minus 7, the Relative Performance Index (RPI) extended an improving trend and is now signaling that global economic data on net are nearly meeting economic forecasts. At minus 2, the index less prices (RPI-P) [...]
April 2024
High points for US economic data scheduled for April 29 week
The two high points of the April 29 week are the FOMC meeting on Tuesday-Wednesday and the April employment report at 8:30 ET on Friday. For the former, no change in the fed funds target [...]
Global data slightly underperforming; Eurozone and US lag, Japan leads
At minus 14 and minus 9, both the Relative Performance Index and the index less prices (RPI-P) extended the prior week’s pattern of global underperformance, too limited, however, to sway expectations for monetary policy.In the [...]
Is the FOMC ready to change balance sheet policy?
While expectations are universal that the FOMC will remain on hold with interest rates at the April 30-May 1 meeting, there is a good possibility that it will elect to make an announcement about a [...]