High points for economic data scheduled for September 30 week

At the close of the third quarter 2024, all eyes will be on the employment report for September at 8:30 ET on Friday, October 4.

The strike at Boeing which began on September 13 will not affect the September payrolls data in the BLS numbers. Workers were on payroll for most of the reference period which ended on Saturday, September 14. If the strike is not over by October 12, the 33,000 workers will then be deducted from manufacturing payrolls until the strike is settled.

Where the strike is likely to be visible is in the initial jobless claims for the week ending September 28 at 8:30 ET on Thursday. Boeing workers could be applying, but most union workers are ineligible for benefits. However, there could be layoffs among suppliers and support services affected by the shutdown. Nonetheless, many businesses will be reluctant to possibly lose employees who could be difficult and/or expensive to replace. Only if the Boeing strike looks to drag on will there be large numbers of layoffs. Hiring may have slowed, but skilled workers are still in demand. It should also be noted that anyone can apply for benefits, but not all those applications will be approved.

Payrolls in September can be influenced by the timing of the start of school years and the Labor Day observance. The Labor Day weekend was relatively early in 2024 (August 31-September 2). Some seasonal businesses may have begun to cut payrolls a bit sooner as students returned to school. September payroll numbers have a strong tendency to come in below the market consensus, but an equally strong tendency to be revised higher in the subsequent month.

Whatever the actual change in September nonfarm payrolls, it will be interpreted in light of the FOMC’s decision to cut the fed funds target rate by 50 basis points on September 18. A weak number will be seen as justifying the larger cut and something close to the market expectation will be read as the Fed getting ahead of any potential softening.