In the December 4 week, Fed policymakers will be out of the public ear during the communications blackout period around the December 12-13 FOMC meeting. The blackout begins at midnight on Saturday, December 2 and [...]

Global data on net are coming in right at expectations, at plus 3 on the Relative Performance Index; zero on this index marks exact matching of consensus forecasts with actual results.The Eurozone has been lagging [...]

The lineup of the 2023 FOMC voters will be in place until the FOMC meeting on January 30-31, 2024.In 2023, the rotation of district bank presidents voting at FOMC meetings consists New York’s John Williams [...]

The available data for forecasting GDP growth in the fourth quarter 2023 are still scanty and the outlook could change as more numbers become available. However, the three Fed district bank GDP Nowcasts are surprisingly [...]

Two questions will dominate in the November 27 week. First, how is the 2023 winter holiday shopping season shaping up? Second, will the FOMC raise rates again at the December 12-13 meeting. This week there [...]

Global economic activity continues to struggle to keep up with market expectations. At minus 17, the RPI shows forecasters on average not too wide of the mark but underperformance can only bolster the chances of [...]

There’s been an uptick in talk about financial stability from Fed officials in the last few months. This is unsurprising given the concerns about how financial institutions are managing their interest rate risk after the [...]

The November 20 week is effectively a three-day work week with the Federal holiday on Thursday for Thanksgiving and many workers taking leave on Friday to have a four-day weekend afterward. Black Friday is the [...]

Global economic activity continued to fall slightly short of market expectations last week. At minus 14, the Relative Performance Index shows forecasters still a little too optimistic about current conditions and, with recent inflation indicators [...]